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The Z Files: Early Season Hitting Disappointments

Todd Zola

Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He's the defending champion in NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was nominated for the 2015 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

As Iíve alluded to in the various content I generate for this site, I update my personal projections each week. With respect to hitters (todayís focus) the factors accounted for are:


  1. New skill level

  2. Playing time

  3. Team context



The first Iíve discussed a lot the past few weeks. I regress each hitterís year-to-date skills to my original expectation using a non-linear weighted average. I trust the level of some current skills more than others, so these pull more of whatís happened.

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